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According to McKinsey?s analysis of fashion forecasts, the global industry will post top-line growth of 2 to 4 percent in 2024 (exhibit), with regional and country-level variations. Once again, the luxury segment is expected to generate the biggest share of economic profit. However, even there, companies will be challenged by the tough economic environment. The segment is forecast to grow globally by 3 to 5 percent, compared with 5 to 7 percent in 2023, as consumers rein in spending after a postpandemic surge. European and Chinese growth is set to slow, while US growth is expected to pick up after a relatively weak 2023, reflecting the slightly more optimistic outlook there.
Sure, layers have been fun, but having to dress practically doesn’t always leave a lot of room for creativity and personal expression. After all you could be wearing your best outfit of the year, but what use is it when it’s being shrouded in the giant winter coat you’ve had to wrap yourself up in every day for the last two months?
You may just be getting into the latest fall 2023 fashion trends?and honestly, why shouldn?t you? The time has come for proper transitional dressing: cute fall boots, apple cider donuts, and pumpkin spice lattes abound. And while I don?t want to take away from the best trench coats or cute fall boots to wear right now, a new season will be here before you know it. And if you, like me, have that sartorial state of mind, you?ve likely been tracking the latest looks from fashion month?which often showcases the trends that will be everywhere next season.
With conflicts in Europe and the Middle East and strained international relations elsewhere, geopolitics is the number-one concern for fashion industry executives going into 2024, followed by economic volatility and inflation. Some 62 percent of executives in this year?s survey, conducted in September, cite geopolitical instability as the top risk to growth. Economic volatility is cited by 55 percent and inflation is mentioned by 51 percent (compared with 78 percent last year). The global average headline rate of inflation is predicted to moderate to 5.8 percent?still high on a historical basis?from 6.9 percent in 2023.1
Anita Balchandani is a senior partner in McKinsey?s London office, where Ewa Starzynska is a consultant; David Barrelet is an associate partner in the Munich office; Achim Berg is a senior partner in the Frankfurt office; Gemma D?Auria is a senior partner in the Milan office; and Felix R?lkens is a partner in the Berlin office. Imran Amed is the founder, editor-in-chief, and CEO of the Business of Fashion and is an alumnus of McKinsey?s London office.
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